In the charts below, we look at occupation gap forecasting for the next 10 years. The gap is more fully described as the “Potential Occupation Gap”, the keyword being “potential”. Many pieces go into this analysis, but at its core, it is based on a forecast comparing occupation demand growth to the local population growth and the projected educational attainment of those residents. When an area, for example, has an occupation expected to grow quickly but the educational requirement for the occupation does not match well with the educational attainment of its residents, there is a high potential for an occupation shortfall in the region. Alternatively, slow-growing or contracting occupations often represent potential supply surpluses.
The potential supply shortfall is an underlying force that the market needs to resolve in one way or another, such as by employers recruiting from further distances for these occupations, wages going up to attract more candidates, and demand and wages both enticing more local residents to get training for this occupation. Once again, this is an underlying force that has the potential to create a gap; it is an individual data item that should not be singularly relied upon, but should be considered along with other regional data (including training concentration analysis, growth and replacement forecasts, unemployment rates, and wages).
Healthcare and construction jobs will be plentiful but hard to fill, and the opposite is projected for production and low-skilled occupations in the Fox Cities as well as the state and the nation.